Elliott Wave 5 Failure Elliott Wave Strategies in Forex
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Ok so I'll admit, I was not a fan of price action until recently. I was watching NNFX and I thought it was useless, part of the problem was that I was too lazy to bother trying it. But the more I browse this sub, the more interested I am. However, I am not completely cutting out my indicators and I'm gonna try both. But I have some questions:
Can you trade using price action on longer timeframes? (1h and up, I can't watch the charts for that long. Preferably, I would do full on swing trading using price action.)
How would you backtest a strategy using price action? I feel like this would be difficult for 2 reasons:
It is pretty subjective, so the rules aren't as strict (you might miss a trade opportunity while backtesting).
I can't backtest on tradingview using intraday charts, do you have a way to get around this? I tried drawing a black rectangle using the drawing tools but if you hover over it with your mouse, you can see price again.
I am going to read naked forex soon, would you recommend any other resources or should I stick with that for now and learn the basics first? (I'm not sure if I can even call it the "basics")
I also did the babypips course so I'm not completely clueless, but I skipped the parts about price patterns, harmonic patterns, and elliot wave (and fundamentals analysis but I'm not gonna bother with fundamentals because I only care about the news so I can avoid it, more than that is too much to keep track of IMO). I think the price patterns section might be important but the elliott wave and harmonic price patterns don't seem too important to me. Should I go back and learn these?
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96 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5) A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures 1-22 and 1-23. free forex signals In a bear market, a zigzag correction takes place in the opposite direction, as shown in Figures 1-24 and 1-25. For this reason, a zigzag in a bear market is often referred to as an inverted zigzag. https://www.freeforex-signals.com/ Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three," producing what is called a double zigzag (see Figure 1-26) or triple zigzag. These formations are analogous to the extension of an impulse wave but are less common. The correction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from July to October 1975 (see Figure 1-27) can be labeled as a double zigzag, as can the correction in the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1977 to March 1978 (see Figure 1-28). Within impulses, second waves frequently sport zigzags, while fourth waves rarely do. forex trading signals R.N. Elliott’s original labeling of double and triple zigzags and double and triple threes (see later section) was a quick shorthand. He denoted the intervening movements as wave X, so that double corrections were labeled A-B-C-X-A-B-C. Unfortunately, this notation improperly indicated the degree of the actionary subwaves of each simple pattern. They were labeled as being only one degree less than the entire correction when in fact, they are two degrees smaller. We have eliminated this problem by introducing a useful notational device: labeling the successive actionary components of double and triple corrections as waves W, Y and Z, so that the entire pattern is counted "W-X-Y (-X-Z)." The letter W now denotes the first corrective pattern in a double or triple correction, Y the second, and Z the third of a triple. Each subwave thereof (A, B or C, as well as D or E of a triangle — see later section) is now properly seen as two degrees smaller than the entire correction. Each wave X is a reactionary wave and thus always a corrective wave, typically another zigzag. https://www.freeforex-signals.com/ 📷 https://i.redd.it/t9a8umh82lg41.gif Figure 1-24 Figure 1-25 Flat (3-3-5) free forex signals A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 1-29 and 1-30. Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not surprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags. 📷 https://i.redd.it/7dap3j592lg41.gif Figure 1-29 Figure 1-30 In a bear market, the pattern is the same but inverted, as shown in Figures 1-31 and 1-32. A flat correction usually retraces less of the preceding impulse wave than does a zigzag. It tends to occur when the larger trend is strong, so it virtually always precedes or follows an extension. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within an impulse, the fourth wave frequently sports a flat, while the second wave rarely does. forex trading signals What might be called a "double flat" does occur. However, Elliott categorized such a formation as a "double three," a term we discuss later in this chapter. forex signals The word "flat" is used as a catch-all name for any A-B-C correction that subdivides 3-3-5. In Elliott literature, however, three types of 3-3-5 corrections have been named by differences in their overall shape. In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A, as we have shown in Figures 1-29 through 1-32. Far more common, however, is the variety we call an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. Elliott called this variation an "irregular" flat, although the word is inappropriate as they are actually far more common than "regular" flats. free forex signals In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A, as shown for bull markets in Figures 1-33 and 1-34 and bear markets in Figures 1-35 and 1-36. The formation in the DJIA from August to November 1973 was an expanded flat correction in a bear market, or an "inverted expanded flat" (see Figure 1-37). forex trading signals In a rare variation on the 3-3-5 pattern, which we call a running flat, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in an expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended, as in Figures 1-38 through 1-41. Apparently in this case, the forces in the direction of the larger trend are so powerful that the pattern is skewed in that direction. The result is akin to the truncation of an impulse. It is always important, but particularly when concluding that a running flat has taken place, that the internal subdivisions adhere to Elliott’s rules. If the supposed B wave, for instance, breaks down into five waves rather than three, it is more likely the first wave up of the impulse of next higher degree. The power of adjacent impulse waves is important in recognizing running corrections, which tend to occur only in strong and fast markets. forex signals free We must issue a warning, however. There are hardly any examples of this type of correction in the price record. Never label a correction prematurely this way, or you’ll find yourself wrong nine times out of ten. A running triangle, in contrast, is much more common (see next section). free forex signalspresents special offer open trading account with one of the best forex brokers and GET FREE forex Signals via SMS, Email and WhatsApp SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL To Access FREE Forex Signals in the Members Area START FREE 30 DAYS TRIAL on https://www.freeforex-signals.com/
https://i.imgur.com/Bm4Nx7a.png The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):
@5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market.
Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude. Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets. An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure. https://i.imgur.com/vePkBiL.png In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020. In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices… Bear Market Inflection Points —A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway. —A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market. —A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020. Bull Market Inflection Points —A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing. —A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway. Notes —Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018 —Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018 —Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018 —S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market. —Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020. —US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes. Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated. —BTC (Weekly): https://i.imgur.com/B0ftUHf.png —BTC (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/ljfMvlt.png —BTC (4-hr): https://i.imgur.com/Ip1QQTe.png
Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another… Read more
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What is a Technical Indicator
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A market order is an order to open a buy or sell position at… Read more We complete our education centre with a breakdown of Gold Trading and details of the different Order Types. You can also review our glossary to find brief definitions of various trading and financial terms you may encounter. Once you have familiarised yourself with the information and concepts, you can open a Demo Trading Account to practice what you have learnt and build on your knowledge and understanding of how to trade successfully. Treat your demo account as you would your real account. Aprender a operar con Forex | Lernen Sie Forex zu handeln
What is Forex? Think the stock market is huge? Think again. Learn about the LARGEST financial market in the world and how to trade in it.
What Is Forex?Learn about this massively huge financial market where fiat currencies are traded.
What Is Traded In Forex?Currencies are the name of the game. Yes, you can buy and sell currencies against each other as a short-term trade, long-term investment, or something in-between.
Buying And Selling Currency PairsThe first thing that you need to know about forex trading is that currencies are traded in pairs; you can’t buy or sell a currency without another.
Know Your Forex History!If it wasn’t for the Bretton Woods System (and the great Al Gore), there would be no retail forex trading! Time to brush up on your history!
When Can You Trade Forex? Now that you know who participates in the forex market, it’s time to learn when you can trade!
Forex Trading SessionsJust because the forex market is open 24 hours a day doesn’t mean it’s always active! See how the forex market is broken up into four major trading sessions and which ones provides the most opportunities.
When Can You Trade Forex: Tokyo SessionGodzilla, Nintendo, and sushi! What’s not to like about Tokyo?!? The Tokyo session is sometimes referred to as the Asian session, which is also the session where we start fresh every day!
When Can You Trade Forex: London SessionNot only is London the home of Big Ben, David Beckham, and the Queen, but it’s also considered the forex capital of the world–raking in about 30% of all forex transactions every day!
When Can You Trade Forex: New York SessionNew York baby! The concrete jungle where forex dreams are made of! Just like Asia and Europe, the U.S. is considered one of the top financial centers in the world, so it definitely sees its fair share of action–and then some!
Types of Forex Orders“Would you like pips with that?” Okay, not that type of order, but buying and selling currencies can be just as simple with a little practice.
Demo Trade Your Way to SuccessCurrency market behavior is constantly evolving. Trade on demo first to get a lot of the rookie mistakes out of the way before risking live capital. There are no take-backs in the real market.
Forex Trading is NOT a Get-Rich-Quick SchemeWhile possible if you’re a trading genius with ice in your veins and you’re luckier than a lottery winner, building wealth through trading takes time and practice to build the skills and experience needed to be successful.
Favorite Trading Tools of a 30 year Commodity, Stock & Option Trader...
VOLUME is my number one favorite indicator. If there is no volume in the market then there is no liquidity. A trader needs be able to easily flow in and out of the market. If movement exists on an exchanges' 1-minute chart then there is volume flow. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is my next favorite indicator. In my trading class I refer to the MACD lines as a "fast dolphin" and "slow dolphin" diving in and out of the ocean surface. The position of one "dolphin" over the other, whether above Sea Level ( 0 ) or below Sea Level ( 0 ) is an indication of where the price is headed. SMAX: My third favorite indicator is the Simple Moving Average Cross; MA or SMA or SMAX. From my days in Forex I happened upon a trading strategy called the Rule of 9. The Rule of 9 claimed to be able to foretell a turn in the market by the consecutive occurrence of the sum of the daily high minus the daily low. Without going into the meat & potatoes of the exact formula, I discovered a couple of young men duplicated this theory by using the Simple Moving Averages of 8 & 10 and waiting for the crossing points. How to read the 8 / 10 SMA: When the candlestick is riding on top of the 8 MA then the price activity is in an uptrend. When the candle pulls up and away from the 8 MA then a reversal might be around the corner? When the candle of an uptrend closes BELOW the 8 MA, this could indicate a reversal in the trend. When the candles (plural) consecutively close below the 8 MA AND the 10 MA has crossed below the 8 MA then a reversal is more than likely occurring. The same can be said for a downtrend. As long as the candlestick is touching the 8 MA then the trend will continue, but as soon as the candle pulls away from the 8 MA a reversal could be around the corner. When these indicators are combined (MACD & 8 / 10 SMA) extremely strong indicators exist to help you determine Entry & Exit points to produce more successful trades. Every one of these indicators can be back-tested on Binance Advanced Charts for competency. These indicators work with potent accuracy on all Time Frames for any particular coin. MACD continued: When the "dolphins" are below the Sea Level or the MACD Level of "0" then a Bearish Market is the "sentiment" of the market. When the dolphins are above the Sea Level then a Bullish sentiment exists in the market. When these "dolphin paths" are exceedingly high or exceedingly low then a reversal is imminent. FOR "TRUE SENTIMENT" OF THE OVERALL MARKET, CLICK OUT TO BROADER TIME FRAMES SUCH AS THE ONE DAY AND ONE WEEK CHARTS. The overall "sentiment" of the market can be better understood by "stepping back" and looking a the "big picture". TREND LINES also play in integral part of a price reversal. A trend line is another strong indicator to use in conjunction with the 8 / 10 SMA and the MACD. CANDLESTICK identification can also aid you in identifying a reversal. Investopedia offers a nice description of candlestick identities and what market sentiment each candlestick usually implies. I've studied Charles Dow Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Ted Warren's Manipulation Theory, W.D. Gann Theory, Munehisa Homma and I've studied Leonardo Fibonacci. These are each interesting reads, but none has clearly helped me identify a trend reversal like the aforementioned indicators have helped me identify trend reversals. Binance offers each of these tools for the trader's use. Thank you for your comments, questions and credits to this post. Chart Analyst
Learning Bitcoin Trading? Here's some Basic Technical Analysis Tools & Essential Knowledge to help!
Getting Started Back when I was learning more about Forex trading, I went to Forex school at Babypips (http://www.babypips.com/school), and learnt some of the fundamentals of chart reading and trading, such as reading candles and trading concepts. Unfortunately, I dropped out somewhere through Elementary School, after they lost me with all kinds of different indicators I could not see the use for. On the other hand, I still do think Babypips is a fantastic resource, especially for beginners who are keen to learn how to trade and better understand the Bitcoin market. More recently, since I made my first few panic buys and sells and lost some Bitcoins trading, I have been picking up again on Technical Analysis and Trading strategies. I’m not an expert at this, and neither should you take my words as investment advice, but I’m here to share some of my thoughts on Bitcoin trading, and I hope it is of great help to you! If you have any questions, feel free to tweet me at @onemanatatime. Learn the Basics of Trading If you’re a beginner trader, first thing you should learn is to read charts. Chart patterns (http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts1.asp) signal to traders that the price of a security is likely to move in one direction or another when the pattern is complete. I’d like to bring your attention three chart patterns that will appear very often. I also took the time to show you how these relate to Bitcoin trading with the charting tools I use on TradingView (https://www.tradingview.comonemanatatime). Enjoy!
Secondly, another analysis tool I think is very useful, is the Fibonacci Extension (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsomgrotZUg). Fibonacci is pretty tough to understand, and more so to chart with Bitcoin due to the lack of available tools which allow for it. But in essence, the Fibonacci sequence is a unique string of numbers which adds the sum of the two numbers before it, and is the deravitive of the Golden Ratio. People like to call them the “magic” numbers, and very aptly so, as they’re present all throughout Nature. Lastly, I’d like to share a trading pattern called the Elliott Wave Principle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle). It emphasizes an understanding of Investor Psychology, and explains why prices fluctuate in zig-zag patterns. If you thought Fibonacci was tough to understand, let’s have Babypips put this in perspective. Babypips teaches Fibonacci in Elementary school Grade 3, whereas Elliott Wave is taught in “Summer School”. In that sense, Eliott Wave would be a great concept to learn and understand, as a supplement to your foundational understanding. Click on the links above to read and learn more about both theories! Bitcoin Trading By now, you’d probably be saying: “Sure, these resources all give me a good basic understanding of trading markets, but how does that apply to Bitcoin?” Since learning the fundamentals, I’ve been looking around for good resources to learn Bitcoin Trading from but with not much luck. Here I’ll be sharing some handy videos to guide you on your Bitcoin trading journey. I didn’t get around to learning proper Bitcoin trading strategies, until early December when I chanced upon ... Abstract from my personal blog post on www.CryptoCoinsNews.com and on www.AlunaCrypto.blogspot.com. http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/01/08/embarking-bitcoin-trading-journey-learn-basic-technical-analysis/ http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/01/embarking-on-my-bitcoin-trading-journey.html Click the links to read the rest of the post, including past Bitcoin price analysis examples, as well as today's prediction. EDIT: I've been asked a few times about which platform I'm using day trade on Bitcoin. So here's for those of you interested: "I use BitFinex, they offer Margin Trading and Liquidy Swaps ontop of a normal Exchange. I just started yesterday but its great and I'm so excited about the Margin Trading options available, and been playing around with it all day long! Made 0.11 BTC on my first trade. ;) Sign up with my referral code now and enjoy 10% off your trading fees for the first 30 days! With Referral Code: [REMOVED -- ask me for referral code to enjoy offer] Without Referral Code: https://www.bitfinex.com/ Also follow me on twitter @onemanatatime for my latest Bitcoin predictions. Cheers & trade safe."
Free forex trading signals live GOLD sell @ 1206 tp @ 1192 sl @ 1213 forex trading signals Description GOLD is preferred to sell market execution order and place stop loss at 1213 and level of take profit will be 1192 Free forex trading signals analysis gold Trend is in medium term is up trend and in near term gold move sideways Trend lines : gold break down the uptrend line to move sideways in near term Chart pattern today for gold forex trading signals gold price formed the five waves basic elliott wave pattern in last days from level 1187 to 1212 and the pattern finished that generate sell trading signals today Important Support and resistance level today level 1212 represents Important resistance level and 1187 represents Important support level The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates to bearish trading signals where indicator decline below level 70 GOLD Candlestick pattern Formed evening star pattern and it is bearish reversal signal gold Next wave maybe bearish based on gold technical analysis indicator
Fundamental Analysis I believe that for an Altcoin to be worth anything at all, it MUST first have technical aspects which are built with the future in mind. This is what solely determines if a cryptocurrency has the potential for the mid to long term. Even with 5 new altcoins launching everyday, you barely see 1 a month that can last even the mid-term. Then, after that I judge the coins based on 7 mediating factors; developers, community, branding/marketing, popularity/virality, novelty, infrastructure, and liquidity. For more about fundamental analysis and an explanation of these factors, read up on the first few sections in my previous post about picking and trading the next profitable altcoin. In this post, I will focus more on technical analysis and trading strategies instead. With so many coins out there, I like to use these above factors to weed out all the weaker shitcoins, and focus on altcoins which are substantially different from others, and more importantly, provide more value than other cryptocurrencies. After which, I use Technical Analysis to judge entry/exit positions for trading them. What else do you think makes a cryptocurrency fundamentally better than another, and more sustainable as a currency? Technical Analysis Many will probably agree when I say that the Altcoins market is akin to the "penny stocks" of cryptocurrencies. In this sense, most altcoin markets have much lower liquidity, but have much higher volatility. Since there are over 200 different cryptocurrency markets to date, I prefer to narrow down my list of altcoins to a small handful, and buy under-valued coins or trade the breakouts. You're going to find it really tough to be watching more than 5 altcoins at the same time, so I highly suggest keeping your list small, and adapt your watchlist to the fast changing markets. If you're new to technical analysis, here's a really good beginner's video on daytrading Penny Stocks, which also explains the basics of chart reading and an introduction to basic trading jargon that I'll be using throughout this post. The important concepts to take note of are resistances & supports, breakouts that coincide with high volume, and the general idea that "what goes up must come down". See video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYK2a77TjvU So after you get the basics sorted out, you should be ready to learn how to trade! I'm gonna break this intermediate technical analysis tutorial down into five main portions, and have compiled videos from other trading experts to give even beginners a better overall idea, and teach you all you need to know to devise your own Bitcoin & Altcoins trading strategy. 1. Top Down Analysis Firstly, lets look at the top down analysis method of reading charts. I always begin by trying to understand the market from a bird eye's view. Compare both charts from a long term period (e.g. 1d) against one from a shorter period (e.g. 15m) to get a holistic view of the market. This will help give you a general perspective of market trends, while peaks & troughs give you an idea of market resistances & supports. Use these basic resistance & support levels to judge entry/exit prices. In general, previous high and low points are new resistances or support depending on where the price is, and points where u can see big breakouts will be the new short term resistance/support. To get a better idea of what I mean, watch these videos by Jason Stapleton who explains top down analysis, resistances & supports, and structure. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9yCc7lD21Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJmMU-8yicM 2. Retracements The concept of retracements is, in my opinion, the most important one that any trading enthusiast must grasp in order to understand how the markets flow. In essence, a retracement is a temporary price movement against the established trend, and helps us understand that the markets move in wave patterns as highlighted by the Elliott Wave Theory. One way to look at it, as highlighted by this video below, is that most price-actions follow a pullback rule to fibonacci retracement levels (38%, 50%, 62%). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VSWqM0jfIQ The most important concept to take away from this is "what goes up must come down"; that price movements in one direction are always followed by retracements in the opposite direction. Of course, not all movements will follow the same pullbacks, and these levels should only be used as a guide. Here's another video: "Understanding Fibonacci retracement lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzHjxPxGzMw". So the question then is, how will we know if this counter-movement price action is a retracement or a reversal? There is no way to say for certain...
3. Trading on Volume Another important concept you need to understand is that large price movements almost always coincide with high trading volume. With this in mind, this is where the liquidity of an altcoin also comes into play; the higher the trade volume of an altcoin, the lower the spreads, and the more likely you will be able to make some profitable trades from it. In general, the trade volume is a good indicator of, and is proportional to the popularity of the altcoin at the current time. Apart from the actual trading volume itself, another good indicator is the change in volume over time; if you realize that the trading volume of an altcoin has been steadily increasing over the last few days, it could be an indication that a big price movement is coming up. 4. Breakout Patterns The last concept I want to share is breakout patterns. Although most people are familiar with this concept, many do not know how to profit from them. This is one of the best tools to use for planning your entry positions, while there are various ways to do so, which are highlighted by these first two videos below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YZ4ORz-UJ0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gN-6D8nH0E 5. Advanced Trading Strategies Now comes the fun part: how can we take all that we've learnt so far and put into good use for trading Bitcoin/Altcoins? Here are some pointers for you:
What we've learnt is more of a tool to make better entry and exit positions.
Keep in mind trading the bitcoin & altcoin markets as you watch the rest of these more advanced videos, and I hope you'll be able to gain some insights to build up your Bitcoins & Altcoins trading strategy.
Granted, forex & equities trading is much different from bitcoin or altcoin markets. However, the fundamentals are the same, and you should learn to draw lessons from the strategies talked about in the videos to supplement your bitcoin/altcoins trading strategy.
In the next videos, more advanced trading strategies and chart patterns will be shared. These strategies may seem very specific, but my goal is to give you better understanding of how these analysis tools are used, and to give you an idea of how different tools can be used to develop a single trading setup. The specifics are not important; what I hope to achieve is to open up your minds to new ideas, expand your trading knowledge, and ultimately encourage you to explore a diverse variety of trading strategies. Read up more on some of the main ideas discussed:
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook, (after a massively successful trendline bounce)
Last week I posted a potential trendline bounce setup on USD/CHF. You could say it worked out rather well. It took a couple of days to hit my target of 0.94, but I'm actually still in this trade, sort of. I've taken most off my position, and then added again when we returned to 0.952 briefly. Having said that, I was probably caught up in the heat of the moment, and 0.95 would have been a better re-entry point. There's also a case for the bears here, so let's look at the set ups for USD/CHF. 8Hr Chart: http://i.imgur.com/bZCNoTM.png That last 8Hr candle is a bull's worst nightmare, so why am I still in this trade? The break of the wedge is encouraging, sure, but the larger wedge top has halted advances for now. We could easily see 0.9500 or even 0.9420/00 early in the week if the dollar rally loses steam. But here's why it might not. That means it's time to... Talk About Fundamentals! Why did the US Dollar rally so much? There are a lot of ideas floating around. It wasn't broad-based risk aversion, although it looked like it if you were watching the Aussie and the Pound. What most likely caused it was the search for yield, as investors lost confidence in Japanese government bonds, and the US economy started to look even healthier. Good jobs numbers mean a chance of tapering QE sooner than expected, which is one of the only things propping up the riskier assets. Stocks didn't follow through, which leaves me suspicious. The Yen crosses were actually up (although in a much more muted fashion than USD/JPY). But the most telling sign comes from EUUSD. I'm gonna get a little ahead of myself here and take a page from Jamie Saettele's book (DailyFX). EUUSD and USD/CHF have always been highly negatively correlated. That correlation breaks down sometimes, but it's usually there. When we have highly correlated assets, we can look to the correlated asset for confirmation of a big move in the first asset. A good example is gold and silver. If gold makes a new high but silver does not confirm that new high with its own, then chances are the next move in gold is down. So if we get a night high in USD/CHF, we're looking for a new low in EUUSD. And we got it. Price went briefly down to 1.2950. Here's the 8hr chart of EUUSD showing USD/CHF in white: http://i.imgur.com/Xmcn3Bq.png So the next move for both of these, in the medium term, is probably a continuation of Friday's moves. However, as you can see EUUSD looks to be bouncing off its trendline, and USD/CHF failed to break close above the larger wedge top. This leaves some doubt as to this week's likely moves. USD/CHF Trade Set Ups There's a case for both bulls and bears. If you believe that this dollar move was impulsive and likely to retrace, there are sell signals aplenty. Trade would be simple: Sell at market, with a stop above 0.963, targeting 0.945 initially (former wedge top which could act as interim support) and then 0.9300 (ascending wedge bottom). However, I believe that what is happening is something of a paradigm shift, as investors finally start to click that their best chance of reliable yield is in US Treasuries. I would like to see the move confirmed by a EUUSD trendline break, and a similar move from the S&P500. If we do get that, expect the larger wedge to break, and for this pair to enjoy a lot more upside. I am currently long from 0.9271. I took a third off at 0.94, another third off at 0.9550, my final target is open, and I am so fucking smug right now. I added at 0.9520, and will add a final third (bringing me back to the original position size) if we see the 0.9500/0.9460 area again. I intend to hold this trade until I am stopped out, either by a full retracement, or because my trailing stop was hit. I will trail the stop manually whenever new lows are formed. This means I will be trailed out by the creation of a lower low - an indication that party time is over. Happy trading!
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